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Market Opener – 03 Dec 2018

 
Local Markets Commentary
The Australian market commences December trade ahead of:

• a data-loaded week;

• an unexpected shortened US trading week, with the NYSE and NASDAQ closed Wednesday; 

• OPEC meetings Thursday-Friday;

• three initial days of UK parliamentary debate on the European Union withdrawal;

• US Federal Reserve parliamentary testimony mid-week; and

• a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting tomorrow. 

In addition, markets are likely to react today and tonight to back wash from the Friday - Saturday G20 leaders’ forum in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

In Buenos Aires, the US, Mexico and Canada signed a new trade agreement; the US and China agreed not to implement or impose any new tariffs on each other’s imports for 90 days; and G20 leaders unanimously agreed to promote WTO structural and process improvements.

Among today’s regional data releases, Caixin is due to report a manufacturing PMI for China 12.45pm AEDT.

Locally today, AiG’s manufacturing sector activity index, plus weekly and monthly capital city residential property price reports are due pre-trade.

Also ahead of tomorrow’s RBA policy meeting, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases October building approvals and the ANZ November job advertisements, each at 11.30am AEDT. 

The ABS also publishes September quarter company profits and business inventories.

A monthly inflation gauge report is due from the Melbourne Institute this morning, and the RBA reports commodity prices post-trade.

In overnight Friday commodities trade, oil turned lower.

US (February) gold futures settled moderately lower. 

Iron ore (China port 62% Fe) declined. 

LME copper turned slightly lower. Aluminium rallied and nickel continued to do so.

The $A slipped to ~US73.05c after trading at US73.15c early Friday evening, but has appreciated this morning..

Overseas Market Commentary
US equities markets closed at session highs overnight Friday, the US sealing a trade deal with Mexico and Canada prior to the formal commencement of the G20 leaders’ summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 

Choppy trade continued to feature across major European indices.

The UK’s FTSE 100 closed at its session low, ahead of initial crucial parliamentary debate this week centre on the European Union (EU)-agreed draft arrangements for the planned UK withdrawal from the EU.

Since then, former US president George HW Bush has died, prompting a ‘national day of mourning’ declaration in the US for the day of his funeral, Wednesday this week, and the closure of the NYSE and NASDAQ the same day.

US budget spending negotiations are also expected to be pushed back, despite (this coming) Friday’s deadline, the US president assuring he would likely agree a two-week funding extension due to the death of the former president and this week’s Washington funeral. 

In addition, the US and China agreed to withhold from further trade tariffs action for 90 days, while officials negotiated changes to IP protection, cybertheft and other arrangements.

Further, G20 members agreed on pushing for World Trade Organisation (WTO) structure and process reforms.

Overnight Friday data releases included 2% (initial) November CPI growth for the euro zone, against 2.2% for October. 

In Germany, October import prices were estimated 1% higher for the month and 4.8% higher year-on-year, following respective 0.4% and 4.4% gains reported in September.

Retail sales came in 0.3% lower for the month, however, the same pullback as for September, but were 5% higher year-on-year.

In the US, the November Chicago PMI was reported at 66.4, from 58.4 in October.

Tonight in the US, ISM’s influential manufacturing PMI is due, together with a revised manufacturing PMI from Markit and October construction spending.

Meanwhile, US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement will be put before the US parliament for approval ‘soon’, after the US president formally declares the end of the existing NAFTA agreement.
 
3/12/2018 7:00:00 AM

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