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Before making any investment decision, you should consult your adviser.
Market Opener – 01 Apr 2019
Local Markets Commentary
The Australian market commences a new quarter’s trade with influential data out of China over the weekend, domestic manufacturing figures in hand, plus business sentiment and conditions due today, and increased uncertainty for the UK ahead of a likely 12 April withdrawal from the European Union.
This, ahead of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting and an Australian government annual budget release ahead of a pre - mid-year national election, each tomorrow.
Key commodities prices and major international equities market rose overnight Friday, but post-northern hemisphere trade, the UK House of Commons again voted against the negotiated immediate arrangements for the UK’s planned withdrawal from the European Union (EU), after also voting down alternative proposals earlier in the week.
In the event further negotiations are ruled out, and amid a backdrop of increased speculation regarding UK government leadership, this week, UK representatives will need to sort with EU leaders likely customs, border security and financial sector implications, ahead of a previously agreed 12 April separation.
China’s official PMIs, published yesterday, surprised on the upside, the manufacturing PMI rising for the first time in four months.
The manufacturing PMI was calculated at 50.5, representing a move back into expansion mode from February’s 49.2.
The export orders and employment components however, continued to fall, the orders figure having now declined for a tenth consecutive month.
The services sector PMI also rose, by 0.5 to 54.8.
Caixin will publish its March manufacturing PMI for China 12.45pm AEDT today.
Additional US-China trade talks outcomes commentary is anticipated today, together with confirmation of a continuation of negotiations in Washington later this week.
Also over the weekend, the US has announced it will stop $US700M worth of aid to three central American nations, and also threatened to entirely close the US-Mexico border.
In overnight Friday commodities trade, oil swung higher.
US gold futures (June) turned to settle with a slight gain.
Iron ore (China port, 62% Fe) also turned, and rallied beyond $US86.5/t.
LME copper, extended Thursday’s gain at rally pace. Aluminium also definitively extended a slight Thursday rise. Nickel swung and rallied.
The $A traded variously a little below US71.0c after trading at ~that mark early Friday evening.
Locally pre-trade, AiG’s March manufacturing PMI has been reported at 51.0 from 54.0 for February.
A monthly capital city residential property price report is also due prior to market open.
NAB publishes the results of its March business survey later this morning, and the Melbourne Institute and TD Securities their monthly inflation gauge report.
The RBA releases a March commodity price index post-trade.
In addition, SUN and several other stocks trade ex-dividend today. Please see p4 for a comprehensive list.
Overseas Market Commentary
Major European and US equities markets opened higher overnight Friday in end-of-March quarter trade, most settling at or near session highs.
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin had described two days of US-China trade talks in Beijing as ‘constructive’.
The talks are due to resume in Washington later this week.
In mixed US data releases, February personal income rose 0.2% for the month, but spending just 0.1%.
The Chicago PMI dropped from 64.7 to 68.7.
February new home sales rose 4.9%.
The University of Michigan March consumer sentiment reading was finalised at 98.4, from 93.8 in February.
UK December quarter GDP growth was finalised at 0.2% for the three months and 1.4% year-on-year.
Business investment came in 2.5% lower year-on-year.
GfK’s March consumer confidence reading was reported at -13, the same as for February.
House prices were 0.7% higher year-on-year and up 0.2% for the month.
In Germany, February retail sales rose 0.9% against 2.8% in January. Year-on-year, sales were up 4.7%.
Import prices rose 0.3% for the month and were 1.6% higher year-on-year, following a 0.2% January monthly fall.
In France, the CPI improved by 0.8% for the month following a flat February reading.
In Turkey mayoral elections took some cities from the ruling government party, likely including Ankara.
In the UK post northern hemisphere trade, the House of Commons voted down (344–286) the PM’s negotiated arrangements for separating from the European Union (EU).
The British pound dropped below $US1.30 again and talk of new government leadership simmered.
Tonight in the US, February retail sales and the ISM’s March manufacturing PMI are due.
February construction spending and January business inventories are also expected.
Internationally and geopolitically, reactions are anticipated to on several fronts, including UK MP suggestions regarding government management of the withdrawal from the EU, US-Mexico border threats, and local government elections in Turkey.
In overnight Friday corporate news, Lyft gained 8.7% on its NASDAQ listing.
The Australian market commences a new quarter’s trade with influential data out of China over the weekend, domestic manufacturing figures in hand, plus business sentiment and conditions due today, and increased uncertainty for the UK ahead of a likely 12 April withdrawal from the European Union.
This, ahead of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting and an Australian government annual budget release ahead of a pre - mid-year national election, each tomorrow.
Key commodities prices and major international equities market rose overnight Friday, but post-northern hemisphere trade, the UK House of Commons again voted against the negotiated immediate arrangements for the UK’s planned withdrawal from the European Union (EU), after also voting down alternative proposals earlier in the week.
In the event further negotiations are ruled out, and amid a backdrop of increased speculation regarding UK government leadership, this week, UK representatives will need to sort with EU leaders likely customs, border security and financial sector implications, ahead of a previously agreed 12 April separation.
China’s official PMIs, published yesterday, surprised on the upside, the manufacturing PMI rising for the first time in four months.
The manufacturing PMI was calculated at 50.5, representing a move back into expansion mode from February’s 49.2.
The export orders and employment components however, continued to fall, the orders figure having now declined for a tenth consecutive month.
The services sector PMI also rose, by 0.5 to 54.8.
Caixin will publish its March manufacturing PMI for China 12.45pm AEDT today.
Additional US-China trade talks outcomes commentary is anticipated today, together with confirmation of a continuation of negotiations in Washington later this week.
Also over the weekend, the US has announced it will stop $US700M worth of aid to three central American nations, and also threatened to entirely close the US-Mexico border.
In overnight Friday commodities trade, oil swung higher.
US gold futures (June) turned to settle with a slight gain.
Iron ore (China port, 62% Fe) also turned, and rallied beyond $US86.5/t.
LME copper, extended Thursday’s gain at rally pace. Aluminium also definitively extended a slight Thursday rise. Nickel swung and rallied.
The $A traded variously a little below US71.0c after trading at ~that mark early Friday evening.
Locally pre-trade, AiG’s March manufacturing PMI has been reported at 51.0 from 54.0 for February.
A monthly capital city residential property price report is also due prior to market open.
NAB publishes the results of its March business survey later this morning, and the Melbourne Institute and TD Securities their monthly inflation gauge report.
The RBA releases a March commodity price index post-trade.
In addition, SUN and several other stocks trade ex-dividend today. Please see p4 for a comprehensive list.
Overseas Market Commentary
Major European and US equities markets opened higher overnight Friday in end-of-March quarter trade, most settling at or near session highs.
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin had described two days of US-China trade talks in Beijing as ‘constructive’.
The talks are due to resume in Washington later this week.
In mixed US data releases, February personal income rose 0.2% for the month, but spending just 0.1%.
The Chicago PMI dropped from 64.7 to 68.7.
February new home sales rose 4.9%.
The University of Michigan March consumer sentiment reading was finalised at 98.4, from 93.8 in February.
UK December quarter GDP growth was finalised at 0.2% for the three months and 1.4% year-on-year.
Business investment came in 2.5% lower year-on-year.
GfK’s March consumer confidence reading was reported at -13, the same as for February.
House prices were 0.7% higher year-on-year and up 0.2% for the month.
In Germany, February retail sales rose 0.9% against 2.8% in January. Year-on-year, sales were up 4.7%.
Import prices rose 0.3% for the month and were 1.6% higher year-on-year, following a 0.2% January monthly fall.
In France, the CPI improved by 0.8% for the month following a flat February reading.
In Turkey mayoral elections took some cities from the ruling government party, likely including Ankara.
In the UK post northern hemisphere trade, the House of Commons voted down (344–286) the PM’s negotiated arrangements for separating from the European Union (EU).
The British pound dropped below $US1.30 again and talk of new government leadership simmered.
Tonight in the US, February retail sales and the ISM’s March manufacturing PMI are due.
February construction spending and January business inventories are also expected.
Internationally and geopolitically, reactions are anticipated to on several fronts, including UK MP suggestions regarding government management of the withdrawal from the EU, US-Mexico border threats, and local government elections in Turkey.
In overnight Friday corporate news, Lyft gained 8.7% on its NASDAQ listing.