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Market Opener – 22 Nov 2018

 
Local Markets Commentary
The Australian market opens today’s trade following an overnight turn higher in most international equities sentiment, and for select key commodities prices, ahead of some material regional data and domestic corporate updates, and with US markets closed tonight. 

Regionally today, Japan is due to release October CPI 10.30am AEDT.

Locally today, AGM season continues, featuring several high-profile mining companies. IPL trades ex-dividend. Please see pp2-4 for detailed lists.

In overnight commodities trade, oil bounced.

US (December) gold futures also turned higher. 

Iron ore (China port 62% Fe) extended Tuesday’s fall. 

LME copper turned higher and aluminium continued so. Nickel continued lower. 

The $A appreciated to ~US72.60c after trading at ~US72.45c early yesterday evening.

Japan’s markets will be closed tomorrow, due to a public holiday.

Overseas Market Commentary
Choppy trade and some notable moves featured across several major European and US equities markets overnight, key European indices climbing in late trade, but the DJIA and S&P 500 notably pulling back towards settlement.

Investor considerations not only included the US Thanksgiving hiatus, but also a swing higher for oil prices, some weaker-than-anticipated economic indicators, adverse geopolitical developments, a downwards global economic growth revision, and multiplying media reports containing corporate debt warnings.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) warned the projected 3.7% 2018 international economic growth rate would slow to 3.5% for the next two years.

In addition, the OECD admonished governments to realise central banks were more limited in capacity than a decade earlier, in any major downturn.

The European Commission in the meantime responded to Italy’s re-submitted proposed budget, determining penalties were appropriate, due to ‘particularly serious non-compliance’ with regional debt rules.

Italy’s PM described the planned sanctions as ‘disrespectful’.

In the UK, public sector non-bank net borrowing rose the most for an October in the past three years, reaching £8.8B, against £7.2B for October 2017.

Meanwhile, MPs again pointed out to the PM that the draft separation deal from the European Union (EU) was not what those who had voted for the separation had anticipated, and the PM repeated her assertion that a rejection of the draft would push the EU to proceed with ‘no deal’.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) promoted the draft as a ‘welcome breakthrough’ and urged the MPs not to ‘go backwards’.

The PM met again with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, amid expectations of a potential material weekend announcement.

Among a swag of US data releases, October durable goods dropped 4.4%, after rising 0.7% in September, and following forecasts of a 2.5% fall. 

Weekly new unemployment claims rose by 3000, against forecasts of a 6000 decline.

October existing home sales rose 1.4% for the month, the first monthly gain since March. Year-on-year, sales were down 5.1%.

A final November consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan came in at 97.5, from 98.6 at the end of October, and an initial 98.3 November estimate.

Tonight, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) October policy meeting minutes are keenly anticipated. 

Elsewhere, US retailers are expected to commence their ‘Black Friday’ sales promotions, which traditionally extend towards ‘Cyber Monday’.

In the meantime, the US Federal Reserve, FDIC and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have announced a public comment period on a proposal to implement a nine per cent capital leverage regulation for $US10B-asset banks.

US markets will be closed tonight, due to the Thanksgiving holiday. They will open tomorrow night, but close early.
 
22/11/2018 7:00:00 AM

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